{"id":4561,"date":"2023-06-14T01:16:35","date_gmt":"2023-06-14T06:16:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/proinvesting.co\/?p=4561"},"modified":"2023-06-14T12:24:48","modified_gmt":"2023-06-14T17:24:48","slug":"inflacion-y-tasas-de-interes-que-nos-espera-en-el-futuro","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/proinvesting.co\/es\/inflacion-y-tasas-de-interes-que-nos-espera-en-el-futuro\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflaci\u00f3n y tasas de inter\u00e9s, que nos espera en el futuro."},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u00bfQu\u00e9 es la inflaci\u00f3n?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

La inflaci\u00f3n es una medida encargada de reportar el aumento de los precios de los bienes en la econom\u00eda. Usualmente, se mide anual y mensualmente e indica la p\u00e9rdida del valor del dinero, por ejemplo, si se reporta una inflaci\u00f3n del 3%, significa que algo que costaba 100 pesos, ahora vale 103 pesos, lo cual en teor\u00eda significa que nuestros 100 pesos valen 97 pesos o 3% menos. <\/span><\/p>\n

\u00bfC\u00f3mo est\u00e1 la inflaci\u00f3n hoy?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Hoy, casi todos los pa\u00edses del mundo enfrentan cifras m\u00e1s altas de las de a\u00f1os pasados. Esto, debido al choque ocurrido por la pandemia del COVID-19 en el a\u00f1o 2020, que oblig\u00f3 a los bancos centrales a brindar apoyo al sistema financiero, lo cual llev\u00f3 a un aumento r\u00e1pido de los precios y a inflaciones por encima de los objetivos de cada pa\u00eds. En el caso colombiano, la inflaci\u00f3n se encuentra en este momento en 12.8% y en EE. UU. cerr\u00f3 en 4%. <\/span><\/p>\n

\u00bfCu\u00e1l es el paso a seguir?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Siguiendo la teor\u00eda econ\u00f3mica, los bancos centrales controlan la inflaci\u00f3n usando pol\u00edtica monetaria, que consiste en usar las tasas de inter\u00e9s para reducir o incrementar la demanda de efectivo y as\u00ed, estimular o enfriar la econom\u00eda y tener la inflaci\u00f3n bajo control. <\/span><\/p>\n

\u00bfQu\u00e9 se predice para el futuro?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Con el dato de inflaci\u00f3n reportado en los Estados Unidos, se ve que la inflaci\u00f3n est\u00e1 cediendo a los aumentos en la tasa de inter\u00e9s de la FED, cayendo del 6.5% en enero de 2023 a 4% en junio de 2023. De esto, podemos predecir que la decisi\u00f3n que tomar\u00e1 la FED ma\u00f1ana 13 de junio de 2023 sobre la tasa de inter\u00e9s ser\u00e1 de mantenerla en 5.25% o incluso bajarla, en consecuencia del gran progreso observado sobre la inflaci\u00f3n. Adicionalmente, un estudio de \u201cCME group\u201d predice que con 91.9% de probabilidad, la tasa se mantiene entre el 5 y 5.25%, la gr\u00e1fica es la siguiente:<\/span><\/p>\n

[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/proinvesting.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Screen-Shot-2023-06-13-at-11.15.19-PM.png&#8221<\/a>; title_text=”Screen Shot 2023-06-13 at 11.15.19 PM” _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n

al 5.25%. Sin embargo, no deja de existir la posibilidad de que se suba la tasa, pero este escenario es muy poco probable. <\/span><\/p>\n

Por otra parte, con nuestro modelo predictivo, obtuvimos datos que sugieren que la inflaci\u00f3n seguir\u00e1 cayendo en los Estados Unidos. Los resultados son los siguientes: <\/span><\/p>\n

[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/proinvesting.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Screen-Shot-2023-06-13-at-11.15.44-PM.png&#8221<\/a>; title_text=”Screen Shot 2023-06-13 at 11.15.44 PM” _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n

Como vemos en la gr\u00e1fica, se ha visto un progreso eficiente que gradualmente ha logrado reducir la inflaci\u00f3n americana. Por ende, la predicci\u00f3n que arroja el modelo puede ser correcta. <\/span><\/p>\n

Ahora, el modelo predijo que la inflaci\u00f3n ser\u00e1 del 3.4%. Sin embargo, al representar una ca\u00edda de gran magnitud, no podemos estar seguros de que esta sea la cifra exacta, pero podemos estar casi seguros de que la inflaci\u00f3n seguir\u00e1 cayendo, debido a que el modelo ha predicho correctamente el curso de la inflaci\u00f3n americana en el pasado.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

Autor: Sergio Henao\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00bfQu\u00e9 es la inflaci\u00f3n? La inflaci\u00f3n es una medida encargada de reportar el aumento de los precios de los bienes en la econom\u00eda. 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